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 862 
 WTNT43 KNHC 230242
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008
 1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008
  
 WHILE THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTOBAL HAS DEGRADED
 SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...NEARBY BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS
 INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS STILL PRODUCING WINDS OF AT LEAST 40-45 KT.
 ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS
 ADVISORY.  NOW THAT THE EARLIER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
 DISSIPATED...WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME.  CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO
 TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
 HOURS.  HOWEVER...SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC
 FORCING...THE EXTRATROPICAL CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
 EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
  
 CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND IS NOW MOVING AT
 AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 30 KT.  GLOBAL MODELS...SAVE THE UKMET...
 SUGGEST A DECREASE IN FOREWARD SPEED BUT THEY DID NOT ADVERTISE THE
 CURRENT ACCELERATION.  ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 FASTER THAN AND NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF
 RESPECT FOR THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE UKMET.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/0300Z 44.0N  59.0W    45 KT
  12HR VT     23/1200Z 45.1N  54.8W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  24HR VT     24/0000Z 45.0N  49.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     24/1200Z 43.3N  44.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     25/0000Z...ABSORBED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER RHOME
  
 
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