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 147 
 WTNT43 KNHC 212046
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008
 500 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008
 
 A LARGE BALL OF CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROPICAL
 CYCLONE.  MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
 CENTER IS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THERE
 HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO INTENSITY ESTIMATES...SO THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CRISTOBAL COULD
 BE CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MOVING OVER THE COOLER WATERS
 NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM TOMORROW.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY
 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE
 STATISTICAL MODELS.  PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS FROM FLORIDA STATE
 SUGGEST THAT A RAPID EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD START TOMORROW
 AND BE COMPLETED BY WEDNESDAY.  
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
 EARLIER. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AN
 ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
 THEREAFTER...THE STORM IS NOW FORECAST TO AVOID ANY TROUGHING OVER
 NORTH AMERICA AND INSTEAD RIDE ALONG THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF
 A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. IN A COUPLE
 DAYS...A NEW TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY TO THE EAST OF THE
 STORM...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOT TOO FAR FROM
 THE GFS BY 96 HOURS. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST NO BAROCLINIC
 REINTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR AND INSTEAD CRISTOBAL MAY DISSIPATE
 OVER THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS IN ABOUT 120 HOURS.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/2100Z 37.1N  71.4W    55 KT
  12HR VT     22/0600Z 38.9N  68.7W    60 KT
  24HR VT     22/1800Z 41.7N  64.7W    60 KT
  36HR VT     23/0600Z 44.0N  60.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     23/1800Z 45.0N  55.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     24/1800Z 42.5N  45.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     25/1800Z 38.5N  40.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE
  
 
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