611 
 WTNT43 KNHC 201500
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008
 1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008
 
 EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT
 LEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT...WITH SFMR MEASURMENTS OF ABOUT 45 KT. SINCE
 THEN...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN SATELLITE IMAGES SO THE
 MAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DRY AIR IN THE
 MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS HAS SEEMINGLY PREVENTED CRISTOBAL FROM
 DEVELOPING MUCH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE GFS SUGGESTS A MORE
 FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
 OR SO...AND A LITTLE BIT OF INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AT THAT
 TIME. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL. 
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...040/5. MODEL GUIDANCE
 IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON AN ACCELERATING TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS
 CRISTOBAL BECOMES PICKED UP IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD
 MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
 THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
 TRACK.  IN ABOUT TWO DAYS THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO START TO BECOME
 ABSORBED BY THE MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND BE FULLY ABSORBED BY 3
 DAYS. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/1500Z 34.5N  76.4W    45 KT
  12HR VT     21/0000Z 35.2N  75.3W    45 KT
  24HR VT     21/1200Z 36.7N  73.2W    50 KT
  36HR VT     22/0000Z 38.9N  70.2W    50 KT
  48HR VT     22/1200Z 42.5N  65.9W    45 KT
  72HR VT     23/1200Z...ABSORBED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE