654 
 WTNT43 KNHC 200251
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008
 1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008
  
 SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NO INDICATION THAT
 CRISTOBAL HAS STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING.  CURRENTLY THE STORM IS
 CONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED...WITH THE COLD TOPS LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF
 BANDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 HELD AT 40 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT AIRCRAFT AROUND 06Z. 
 THE MORE OBVIOUS ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS DO FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING
 OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THESE BEING LIGHT SHEAR AND ANTICYCLONIC
 FLOW ALOFT...AND WARM WATERS BELOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 PRIMARILY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.  AT PRESENT THE WIND
 FIELD IS VERY ASYMMETRIC.  HOWEVER...IF THE FORECAST STRENGTHENING
 OCCURS...CRISTOBAL COULD WRAP SOME OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
 WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. 
 
 THERE HAS BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  THE INITIAL
 MOTION IS 045/5.  CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...
 VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH SOME ACCELERATION AS IT ENTERS THE
 WESTERLIES.  ONLY THE NOGAPS AND GFNI TAKE CRISTOBAL CLOSE TO
 EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.   GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT CRISTOBAL WILL
 BECOME ABSORBED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN ABOUT 48
 HOURS...ALTHOUGH I'VE ELECTED TO SHOW THE SYSTEM AS A SEPARATE
 ENTITY A LITTLE BIT LONGER.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/0300Z 33.4N  77.5W    40 KT
  12HR VT     20/1200Z 34.1N  76.6W    45 KT
  24HR VT     21/0000Z 35.2N  75.1W    50 KT
  36HR VT     21/1200Z 36.8N  73.0W    55 KT
  48HR VT     22/0000Z 39.0N  70.0W    45 KT
  72HR VT     23/0000Z 45.0N  63.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     24/0000Z...ABSORBED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN