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 704 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 142031
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
 200 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014
 
 Cristina's convective pattern continues to degrade, with the
 remaining deep convection located to the north and northeast of the
 low-level center. The initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt based
 on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates
 and data from a 1730 UTC ASCAT overpass. Moderate vertical shear and
 an increasingly unfavorable thermodynamic environment should result
 in continued weakening to tropical depression status in about 24
 hours. Cristina is expected to become a remnant low by 36 hours and
 dissipate entirely by day 4. The NHC intensity forecast has been
 adjusted downward toward the new IVCN intensity consensus.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 305/05, and a general northwestward
 to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue as the
 weakening cyclone is steered around the southwestern side of the
 subtropical ridge for the next couple of days. By day 3, the remnant
 low should gain a little more latitude as it moves into a weakness
 in the ridge. The official track forecast is a little north of
 and faster than the previous one, trending toward the latest TVCE
 multi-model consensus.
 
 The initial 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on the
 aforementioned ASCAT pass.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  14/2100Z 19.7N 111.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  15/0600Z 20.1N 112.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  15/1800Z 20.6N 113.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  16/0600Z 21.1N 114.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  16/1800Z 21.7N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  17/1800Z 23.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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