Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 906 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 120838
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
 200 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014
 
 Satellite images indicate that Cristina has rapidly intensified
 during the past several hours.  Convection around the center has
 become more intense and symmetric, with the eye also becoming better
 defined and warmer.  Dvorak estimates range from 102-112 kt, and 105
 kt is chosen as the initial wind speed.  Cirrus clouds approaching
 the storm from the southwest suggest an increase in shear is coming
 sooner rather than later, so only a small intensification is
 predicted today.  A weakening trend should begin on Friday due to
 increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters, with Cristina
 likely transitioning into a remnant low over the cool eastern
 Pacific waters by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than
 the previous one in the short term to account for the initial
 intensity, but is otherwise unchanged beyond 36 hours.
 
 Cristina is moving at 295/7 around the southern periphery of a
 mid-level high over Mexico.  A west-northwestward to northwestward
 motion is forecast during the next few days while the hurricane
 remains steered by the high.  Cristina should turn toward the west
 and decelerate over the weekend when the weakening cyclone becomes
 more steered by the low-level flow.  Although there is still some
 model disagreement at long range, the model consensus is almost
 unchanged from the previous one, and the new NHC forecast is
 basically an update of the last prediction.
 
 Cristina is the earliest second major hurricane formation in the
 eastern Pacific since reliable records began in 1971, eclipsing the
 former record of Darby (2010) by 13 days.
 
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  12/0900Z 16.2N 106.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
  12H  12/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
  24H  13/0600Z 17.5N 108.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
  36H  13/1800Z 18.3N 110.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
  48H  14/0600Z 19.0N 111.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  15/0600Z 19.7N 112.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  16/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  17/0600Z 20.0N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for CRISTINA

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman