906
WTPZ43 KNHC 120838
TCDEP3
HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
200 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014
Satellite images indicate that Cristina has rapidly intensified
during the past several hours. Convection around the center has
become more intense and symmetric, with the eye also becoming better
defined and warmer. Dvorak estimates range from 102-112 kt, and 105
kt is chosen as the initial wind speed. Cirrus clouds approaching
the storm from the southwest suggest an increase in shear is coming
sooner rather than later, so only a small intensification is
predicted today. A weakening trend should begin on Friday due to
increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters, with Cristina
likely transitioning into a remnant low over the cool eastern
Pacific waters by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than
the previous one in the short term to account for the initial
intensity, but is otherwise unchanged beyond 36 hours.
Cristina is moving at 295/7 around the southern periphery of a
mid-level high over Mexico. A west-northwestward to northwestward
motion is forecast during the next few days while the hurricane
remains steered by the high. Cristina should turn toward the west
and decelerate over the weekend when the weakening cyclone becomes
more steered by the low-level flow. Although there is still some
model disagreement at long range, the model consensus is almost
unchanged from the previous one, and the new NHC forecast is
basically an update of the last prediction.
Cristina is the earliest second major hurricane formation in the
eastern Pacific since reliable records began in 1971, eclipsing the
former record of Darby (2010) by 13 days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 16.2N 106.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 17.5N 108.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 18.3N 110.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 19.0N 111.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 19.7N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 20.0N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Blake
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for CRISTINA
Back to main Tropical Weather page
This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman
|