002 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 111452
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
 800 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2014
 
 After an overnight period of strengthening, conventional and
 microwave satellite imagery suggest that Cristina's intensity has
 leveled off. Recent SSMI/S and TRMM overpasses indicated a low-
 level eye feature, but the mid-level eye is no longer evident. The
 cyclone again appears to have ingested dry mid-level air, which has
 eroded the convection in the western semicircle. The initial
 intensity of 65 kt is based on consensus Dvorak satellite intensity
 estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB.
 
 After a brief jog to the west-southwest, Cristina appears to have
 resumed a westerly motion of 275/05 kt. Other than to make just a
 tad right-of-track adjustment due to the initial position, the NHC
 official forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory
 track. Cristina is expected to move westward today, followed by a
 west-northwestward motion around the southwestern periphery of a
 deep-layer ridge in the 24- to 72-hour period, a scenario which
 most of the reliable models strongly agree on. After that, however,
 the models diverge significantly with the GFS, GFS Ensemble, NAVGEM,
 HWRF, and GFDL models taking a stronger Cristina more northward,
 whereas the ECMWF and UKMET weaken the cyclone fairly quickly and
 move it more westward. Given that the official intensity forecast is
 calling for a weaker and smaller tropical cyclone by 96 and 120
 hours, the official forecast at those times is roughly an average of
 the ECMWF and GFS models, which shows a weaker and more vertically
 shallow cyclone moving west-northward to westward.
 
 Cristina has consistently been intensifying at night during the
 convective maximum period, which seems likely to continue for
 another 24-48 hours. However, the cyclone will still be battling
 occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air for the remainder of the
 forecast period, especially after 72 hours, so only gradual
 intensification is expected. After day 3, increasing southwesterly
 vertical wind shear and SSTs cooler than 26C are expected to induce
 steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
 previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus intensity
 model ICON.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/1500Z 15.4N 104.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  12/0000Z 15.7N 105.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  12/1200Z 16.2N 107.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  13/0000Z 16.9N 108.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  13/1200Z 17.7N 110.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  14/1200Z 19.0N 112.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  15/1200Z 19.5N 113.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  16/1200Z 19.9N 115.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart