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 993 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 110233
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014
 
 Cristina is intensifying this evening.  The compact central dense
 overcast has become more circular, and hints of an eye have been
 apparent in geostationary satellite images.  The initial
 intensity is increased to 55 kt, in agreement with unanimous Dvorak
 classifications of 3.5/55 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.
 
 Although the curved bands beyond the inner-core region remain
 fragmented, a considerable amount of lightning has been occurring
 in a rain band located about 120 n mi to the south-southwest of the
 center.  Recent research has documented that lightning in the
 outer bands of the tropical cyclone circulation is often a precursor
 of significant intensification.  The only apparent factor that could
 limit strengthening during the next couple of days is mid-level dry
 air, which has been an issue for Cristina during the past day or so.
 In about 3 days, Cristina is expected to move into an environment of
 stronger southwesterly shear and over cooler waters, which should
 end the strengthening trend and cause the cyclone to weaken.  The
 NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one, and
 is pretty close to the intensity model consensus IVCN.
 
 Cristina has wobbled a little south of due west during the past 6
 hours, and the latest initial motion estimate is 265/5.  A westward
 to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so
 while the cyclone remains on the south side of a mid-level ridge
 over northwestern Mexico.  After that time, a turn to the northwest
 is predicted when the ridge weakens and shifts eastward.  The NHC
 track forecast is an update of the previous one, and close to a
 consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/0300Z 15.2N 103.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  11/1200Z 15.4N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  12/0000Z 15.8N 106.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  12/1200Z 16.5N 107.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  13/0000Z 17.2N 109.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  14/0000Z 18.7N 111.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  15/0000Z 19.6N 113.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  16/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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