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 436 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 100236
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
 800 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014
 
 Although the intensity of the deep convection has not changed
 significantly during the last several hours, the cyclone has better
 defined features with thunderstorms consolidating near the center
 and fragmented bands to the east and west of the center.  The
 initial intensity estimate is 35 kt, based on a Dvorak
 classification from TAFB, making the cyclone Tropical Storm
 Cristina.
 
 Cristina has a few days to gain additional strength while the
 environmental factors remain generally favorable, and the models are
 in fairly good agreement in showing Cristina being at or near
 hurricane strength in 36 to 48 hours.  Beyond a few days, the system
 is expected to move into a drier airmass with stronger southwesterly
 shear, and over marginal sea surface temperatures.  These conditions
 should end the strengthening phase, and ultimately cause Cristina to
 weaken.  The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the intensity
 consensus model IVCN for the first 3 days of the forecast period,
 and then lies lower than consensus closer to the LGEM guidance at
 days 4 and 5 when environmental conditions are expected to become
 more hostile.
 
 The storm had been drifting northwestward most of the day, but the
 latest satellite images suggest that Cristina is likely now
 moving slowly westward.  This westward turn is in response to a
 building mid-level ridge to the northwest of the storm, and that
 feature should keep Cristina on a westward to west-northwestward
 path away from the coast of Mexico during the next several days.
 The NHC track forecast is close to the previous one in the short
 term, and then is nudged northward trending toward the latest
 guidance.
 
 Given the forecast track and size of the tropical cyclone, the
 Government of Mexico does not anticipate the need for any watches or
 warnings along the coast of Mexico.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/0300Z 15.5N 102.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  10/1200Z 15.5N 102.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  11/0000Z 15.5N 104.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  11/1200Z 15.6N 105.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  12/0000Z 16.0N 106.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  13/0000Z 17.0N 109.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  14/0000Z 18.1N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  15/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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