937 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 272056
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008
 200 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008
 
 RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
 LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MI SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
 CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT SURFACE CIRCULATION DEFINITION
 TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE CYCLONE HAD BEEN
 STRUGGLING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS TO CLOSE OFF THE
 CIRCULATION...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION...WHICH
 PROBABLY WAS DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ.
 
 ALTHOUGH AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER
 THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
 TO MOVE WITHIN A LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS. 
 CONSEQUENTLY...ON SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
 24 HOURS.  THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A
 WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY DAY
 4.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS 280/8...WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
 CREATED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE REGION FROM
 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A GENERALLY
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE TROUGH
 RETROGRADES AND GRADUALLY FILLS. AFTERWARD...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES
 A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH OF THE
 DEPRESSION WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST.   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/2100Z 13.5N 123.0W    30 KT
  12HR VT     28/0600Z 13.9N 124.1W    35 KT
  24HR VT     28/1800Z 14.3N 125.8W    35 KT
  36HR VT     29/0600Z 14.6N 127.5W    35 KT
  48HR VT     29/1800Z 14.7N 129.4W    35 KT
  72HR VT     30/1800Z 15.0N 134.0W    30 KT
  96HR VT     01/1800Z 15.0N 138.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     02/1800Z 15.0N 143.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN