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 385 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 271440
 TCDEP3
  
 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
 800 AM PDT THU JUN 27 2013
 
 COSME HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO
 ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS IT MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
 22-23C.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KT BASED ON
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THIS COULD BE
 GENEROUS.  BARRING AN UNEXPECTED RETURN OF THE CONVECTION...THE
 CYCLONE SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.  THE GLOBAL
 MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
 DAYS...WITH THE SYSTEM FINALLY DECAYS TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT
 120 HOURS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/14.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
 TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A
 DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO SLOW
 THEIR FORWARD SPEED BY 72-96 HR AS THEY APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE
 RIDGE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  27/1500Z 20.4N 120.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  28/0000Z 20.9N 123.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  28/1200Z 21.4N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  29/0000Z 21.5N 128.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  29/1200Z 21.5N 131.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  30/1200Z 21.5N 135.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  01/1200Z 22.0N 139.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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