492 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 242033
 TCDEP3
  
 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
 200 PM PDT MON JUN 24 2013
  
 THE CENTER OF COSME IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE
 AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
 CONVECTIVE BANDING NOW DEVELOPING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
 CENTER...AND THERE IS NOW A LITTLE MORE CURVATURE TO THE CONVECTIVE
 BANDS NEAR THE CENTER ITSELF. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT
 BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
 ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING
 BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE
 NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE
 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OBSERVED STRENGTHENING...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND
 OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A MORE CONFIDENT 310/12...AS THE
 CENTER HAS BEEN EASIER TO TRACK FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS IN VISIBLE
 IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTH OF
 THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT ASIDE FROM THAT
 THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
 COSME IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12
 TO 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
 BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
 UNITED STATES. LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES...COSME
 IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST WHILE IT WEAKENS TO A REMNANT
 LOW. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE
 PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION
 AND MOTION AND AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL
 CONSENSUS. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN
 UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  24/2100Z 15.0N 107.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  25/0600Z 16.0N 108.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  25/1800Z 17.0N 111.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  26/0600Z 17.7N 113.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  26/1800Z 18.3N 116.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  27/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  28/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  29/1800Z 20.5N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN