688 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 231448
 TCDEP3
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013
  
 SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LARGE AREA OF LOW
 PRESSURE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED ENOUGH OF A CENTER TO
 BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A SMALL
 AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION...WITH LARGE BANDING FEATURES TO THE
 NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30
 KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES AND
 EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. OTHER THAN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
 SYSTEM...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS IMPEDIMENTS TO THIS DEPRESSION
 STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS OVER
 WARM WATER WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...A BIT HIGHER THAN THE
 INTENSITY CONSENSUS. WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN
 THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE.
 
 THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH DURING THE PAST 12-24 HR
 WHILE IT HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE GLOBAL
 MODELS SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL EXIT THE ITCZ BY TOMORROW AND
 BE STEERED BY A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THUS...THE
 CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST ON
 MONDAY AND CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR 4-5
 DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME
 A SHALLOWER CYCLONE AND TAKE A WESTWARD TURN AS IT BECOMES STEERED
 BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FOR A FIRST ADVISORY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
 RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT TOO
 DISSIMILAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  23/1500Z 11.8N 103.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  24/0000Z 12.2N 104.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  24/1200Z 13.4N 105.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  25/0000Z 15.2N 107.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  25/1200Z 16.4N 109.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  26/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  27/1200Z 19.5N 119.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  28/1200Z 20.5N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE