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 424 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 180841
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007
 200 AM PDT WED JUL 18 2007
  
 COSME CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
 QUADRANT OF ITS CIRCULATION AS IT MOVES OVER 25C WATERS.  SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...
 RESPECTIVELY.  UNFORTUNATELY...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THE
 CYCLONE.  GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS...IT MAY BE APPROPRIATE
 TO BE NEAR THE LOW END OF THE RANGE OF SATELLITE ESTIMATES...AND SO
 THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK
 FORECAST THINKING...WITH A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH AND
 NORTHWEST OF COSME BEING THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM.  THE
 LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THIS RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5
 DAYS...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO WEST-
 NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS OF A TIGHTLY PACKED ENSEMBLE OF
 GUIDANCE MODELS.
 
 COSME IS MAINTAINING A RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION GIVEN THE
 SST'S IT IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING.  EVEN COOLER WATERS LIE
 AHEAD...HOWEVER...AND REACH A MINIMUM BEFORE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
 TO DIMINISH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 CALLS FOR COSME TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. 
 AFTER THAT...SST'S ALONG THE TRACK WILL BE INCREASING...AND THERE
 COULD BE SOME REGENERATION BY 72 HOURS.  NONE OF THE EXPLICIT
 INTENSITY GUIDANCE...INCLUDING SHIPS...NOW SHOWS ANY DECAY AT THE
 END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
 FORECAST HANGS ON TO COSME AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT...
 ALTHOUGH WESTERLY SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO 
 LATE-PERIOD WEAKENING. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/0900Z 15.2N 137.5W    35 KT
  12HR VT     18/1800Z 15.4N 139.2W    35 KT
  24HR VT     19/0600Z 15.7N 141.8W    30 KT
  36HR VT     19/1800Z 16.2N 144.7W    30 KT
  48HR VT     20/0600Z 16.7N 147.6W    30 KT
  72HR VT     21/0600Z 17.5N 153.5W    30 KT
  96HR VT     22/0600Z 18.5N 159.0W    25 KT
 120HR VT     23/0600Z 18.5N 164.0W    25 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 
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