956 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 160854
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007
 200 AM PDT MON JUL 16 2007
  
 COSME HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY THIS MORNING.  MICROWAVE
 OVERPASSES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS
 EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES AND THE BEGINNING OF AN EYE.  DVORAK
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KT AND
 THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9.  COSME HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
 TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE
 CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL
 STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...TURNING COSME MORE
 WESTWARD.  NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
 THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS WHICH KEEPS THE CYCLONE
 MOVING NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS THE GFDL...
 HWRF...GFS AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE CLOSELY AND INDICATES THAT COSME
 WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
 CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS BETWEEN THE FASTER GFDL AND
 SLOWER GFS. 
 
 SINCE COSME IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
 NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE MAIN FACTOR CONTROLLING INTENSITY WILL BE
 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  COSME IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS NEAR 27C
 WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE SSTS
 GRADUALLY COOL.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS COSME TO HURRICANE STRENGTH
 WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF PEAK THE INTENSITY SLIGHTLY LOWER.  GIVEN
 THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
 FOLLOW THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY AND PREDICT A HURRICANE WITHIN 24
 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST INDICATES SLOW WEAKENING.  LATE
 IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND AT THAT
 TIME THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN MOST OF THE
 AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/0900Z 13.8N 129.5W    55 KT
  12HR VT     16/1800Z 14.4N 130.7W    60 KT
  24HR VT     17/0600Z 14.9N 132.5W    65 KT
  36HR VT     17/1800Z 15.2N 134.4W    65 KT
  48HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N 136.7W    60 KT
  72HR VT     19/0600Z 16.2N 141.5W    50 KT
  96HR VT     20/0600Z 17.0N 146.5W    40 KT
 120HR VT     21/0600Z 17.5N 151.5W    30 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN