309 
 WTPA41 PHFO 222102
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062007
 1100 AM HST SUN JUL 22 2007
 
 IS IT OPEN OR IS IT CLOSED...THAT IS THE QUESTION. A QUIKSCAT PASS
 AT 17Z HAS COSME AS AN OPEN TROUGH WITH 30 KT NON-RAIN CONTAMINATED
 WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. PERHAPS QUIKSCAT HAS IT AS A
 TROUGH BECAUSE OF INPUT FROM GFS...WHICH ALSO SEES IT AS A TROUGH.
 GOES-11 SATELLITE IMAGERY...ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOWS COSME AS A
 CLOSED LOW WITH AN OBVIOUS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
 QUESTION IS...ARE THERE ANY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SOUTH OF THE
 CENTER. CIRA MULTIPLATFORM SATELLITE SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS SAYS
 THAT IT IS IN FACT A CLOSED LOW WITH 5 TO 10 KT WESTERLY WINDS IN
 THE SOUTH QUADRANT. 
 
 AS FOR CURRENT INTENSITY...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE...
 SEEING AS THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN APPEARANCE OVER
 THE LAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...COSME REMAINS A TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT MAXIMUM WINDS. A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATE FROM PHFO WAS 2.0. SAB CAME IN WITH 1.5 WHILE THE ADVANCED
 OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE YIELDED A HIGH 3.4.
 
 COSME IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 19 KT...A SMALL INCREASE OF A
 COUPLE OF KNOTS FROM 6 HOURS AGO. THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS COSME
 MOVING ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK...LAYING IN THE MIDDLE OF A
 TIGHTLY BUNCHED GROUP OF OBJECTIVE AIDS. COSME WILL STAY ON A
 WESTERLY COURSE SOUTH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC HIGH TO THE NORTH
 NORTHEAST. COSME OR ITS REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN MORE OUT OF THE
 WEST-NORTHWEST AND SLOW DOWN AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL
 RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS.
 
 FOR THE LAST DAY OR TWO...COSME HAS MANAGED TO HANG TOGETHER IN
 SPITE OF A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KT...PERHAPS
 BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER OCEAN WATER. NOGAPS
 AND GFS GLOBAL MODELS SAY THAT COSME IN THE SHORT TERM WILL MOVE
 INTO A MORE FRIENDLY ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS VERTICAL SHEAR. FORECAST
 INTENSITIES REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR NOW...KEEPING COSME AS A DEPRESSION
 THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATING THROUGH 48 HOURS AS SHEAR
 INCREASES AGAIN.
 
 THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO BRING COSME CLOSE TO JOHNSTON ISLAND
 LATER TODAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT A GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF THE
 WEATHER ON THIS SMALL ATOLL DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      22/2100Z 16.2N 167.5W    30 KT
  12HR VT     23/0600Z 16.3N 170.6W    30 KT
  24HR VT     23/1800Z 16.5N 174.7W    30 KT
  36HR VT     24/0600Z 16.9N 178.4W    25 KT
  48HR VT     24/1800Z 17.4N 178.6E    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     25/1800Z 18.5N 174.9E    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     26/1800Z...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CRAIG