614
WTPA41 PHFO 211445
TCDCP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
500 AM HST SAT JUL 21 2007
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 225 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION PASSED
ABOUT 70 NM SOUTH OF BOUY 51002...AND BROUGHT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 27
KT AND SEAS OF 12 FT. THIS TOGETHER WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 2.0 FROM PHFO AND 2.5 FROM SAB SUGGESTS MAINTAINING AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL WEST
OF A SMALL AREA OF REMNANT CONVECTION LOCATED ABOUT 160 NM EAST OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/17 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION IS
STEERED BY LOW LEVEL TRADE FLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AS A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO THE NORTH OF COSME MOVES WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE SYSTEM.
THIS NORTH TO NORTHWEST SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AT LEAST...SO EVEN THOUGH COSME IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF MORE FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL REGENERATE. THE LACK OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE
CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY REQUIRE COSME TO BE
DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 16.1N 158.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 16.1N 161.2W 25 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 16.2N 165.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 23/0000Z 16.4N 168.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 23/1200Z 16.9N 172.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 24/1200Z 18.1N 179.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 25/1200Z 19.7N 175.7E 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 26/1200Z 21.7N 170.9E 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BROWNING
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for COSME
Back to main Tropical Weather page
This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman
|