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 614 
 WTPA41 PHFO 211445
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062007
 500 AM HST SAT JUL 21 2007
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 225 NM SOUTHWEST OF 
 SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND.  THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION PASSED 
 ABOUT 70 NM SOUTH OF BOUY 51002...AND BROUGHT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 27 
 KT AND SEAS OF 12 FT.  THIS TOGETHER WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
 OF 2.0 FROM PHFO AND 2.5 FROM SAB SUGGESTS MAINTAINING AN INITIAL
 INTENSITY OF 30 KT FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
 SHOWS THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL WEST
 OF A SMALL AREA OF REMNANT CONVECTION LOCATED ABOUT 160 NM EAST OF
 THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/17 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
 FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION IS
 STEERED BY LOW LEVEL TRADE FLOW. 
 
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
 LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AS A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW
 TO THE NORTH OF COSME MOVES WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE SYSTEM. 
 THIS NORTH TO NORTHWEST SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
 NEXT 48 HOURS AT LEAST...SO EVEN THOUGH COSME IS MOVING INTO AN
 AREA OF MORE FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE
 SYSTEM WILL REGENERATE.  THE LACK OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE
 CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY REQUIRE COSME TO BE
 DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.      
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/1500Z 16.1N 158.3W    30 KT
  12HR VT     22/0000Z 16.1N 161.2W    25 KT
  24HR VT     22/1200Z 16.2N 165.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
  36HR VT     23/0000Z 16.4N 168.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     23/1200Z 16.9N 172.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     24/1200Z 18.1N 179.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     25/1200Z 19.7N 175.7E    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     26/1200Z 21.7N 170.9E    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWNING
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
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