289 
 WTNT43 KNHC 071459
 TCDAT3
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016
 1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016
 
 Satellite and surface observations indicate that Colin has become
 post-tropical.  A pressure minimum has recently passed near NOAA
 buoy 41013, but the circulation has become so elongated and ill
 defined that the system can no longer be considered a tropical
 cyclone.  However, strong winds are still occurring along the North
 Carolina Outer Banks, so advisories will continue on a post-tropical
 cyclone until these winds subside. The minimum pressure has fallen a
 few millibars and recent buoy observations have recorded
 tropical-storm-force winds near the western portion of the deep
 convection.  Assuming stronger winds are occurring within the deep
 convection and given the fast translational speed of the system, the
 initial wind speed is increased to 50 kt.
 
 The global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will
 deepen due to baroclinic processes during the next day or so, and
 the NHC intensity forecast calls for some additional strengthening.
 After that time, the low is expected to gradually weaken over the
 North Atlantic. The forecast intensities and wind radii of the
 extratropical low are based on guidance provided by the Ocean
 Prediction Center.
 
 The post-tropical cyclone is moving northeastward at about 31 kt.
 This general motion with some additional increase in forward speed
 is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours.  After that time, the
 cyclone should slow as it moves around and is eventually absorbed
 by a larger low over the North Atlantic.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  07/1500Z 34.0N  77.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  12H  08/0000Z 36.9N  70.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  24H  08/1200Z 41.0N  61.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  09/0000Z 45.0N  53.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  09/1200Z 48.0N  49.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  10/1200Z 51.5N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  11/1200Z 53.5N  36.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  12/1200Z...Absorbed
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown