Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 590 
 WTNT44 KNHC 052101
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010
 500 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
 HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF COLIN HAVE DEVELOPED
 SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED CENTER OF
 CIRCULATION TO AGAIN BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE
 AIRCRAFT FOUND 500-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 50-52 KT AND SFMR WINDS
 NEAR 40 KT EAST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS...ADVISORIES ARE
 RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN AT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
 KT.  
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/17.  COLIN IS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
 RIDGE AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW 27N74W...WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
 MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
 EASTERN CANADA.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE COLIN TO TURN
 NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT
 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AND GRADUAL
 ACCELERATION INTO THE WESTERLIES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
 AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE
 FORWARD SPEED BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER UKMET.  THE
 FORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES IN SPEED BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND
 IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.
  
 COLIN IS EXPERIENCING 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
 CAUSED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR 12-24
 HR...WITH THE STORM FINDING A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FROM
 24-72 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN
 STRENGTH FOR 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY STEADY INTENSIFICATION.  THE GFDL
 AND HWRF CALL FOR COLIN TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 72
 HR...WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM ARE LESS INTENSE.  THE FORECAST PEAK
 INTENSITY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE MODELS.  EXTRATROPICAL
 TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT ABOUT 96 HR AND BE COMPLETE AT
 120 HR.
 
 INTERNET PROBLEMS WILL PREVENT THE NHC WEB SITE FROM BEING UPDATED
 AT THIS TIME.  PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV FOR ADVISORY TEXT PRODUCTS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      05/2100Z 24.9N  66.3W    40 KT
  12HR VT     06/0600Z 26.6N  67.3W    40 KT
  24HR VT     06/1800Z 28.1N  67.7W    40 KT
  36HR VT     07/0600Z 29.6N  67.5W    45 KT
  48HR VT     07/1800Z 31.3N  67.1W    50 KT
  72HR VT     08/1800Z 36.0N  65.0W    55 KT
  96HR VT     09/1800Z 40.0N  61.5W    60 KT
 120HR VT     10/1800Z 49.0N  48.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for COLIN

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman