725 
 WTNT43 KNHC 140839
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032015
 500 AM AST TUE JUL 14 2015
 
 Claudette remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the center
 located to the south of a new burst of deep convection that has
 developed overnight.  Satellite intensity estimates suggest that
 the tropical cyclone has weakened slightly, so the initial
 intensity has been lowered to 40 kt.  Claudette will be crossing
 the north wall of the Gulf Stream and over much colder waters this
 morning.  The unfavorable SSTs and strong southwesterly shear
 should cause Claudette to lose its tropical characteristics later
 today.  The post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate as it
 approaches or moves over Newfoundland on Wednesday.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 050/17 kt.  The cyclone is expected
 to move between northeast and north-northeast within deep-layer
 southwesterly flow over the western Atlantic.  The new NHC forecast
 is essentially an update of the previous advisory, and lies between
 the GFS and ECMWF solutions.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  14/0900Z 40.1N  63.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  14/1800Z 41.9N  61.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  15/0600Z 45.0N  58.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  36H  15/1800Z 48.0N  55.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown