038 
 WTNT44 KNHC 161437
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042009
 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009
  
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE TAMPA WSR-88D INDICATE
 DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EAST SEMICIRCLE OF THE
 TROPICAL CYCLONE. IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
 STRONGER BANDS MAY NOT YET BE MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE...AS NOAA
 BUOY 42036 LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION
 CENTER IS REPORTING WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KT. AIRCRAFT
 RECONNAISSANCE WILL BE INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE SHORTLY TO HELP
 DETERMINE IF IT HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.
  
 ALTHOUGH REGIONAL UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
 SUGGEST THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY
 FAVORABLE...THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE DEPRESSION IS
 QUITE DIFFLUENT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
 STILL REFLECTS STRENGTHENING JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER THAT
 TIME...WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IS FORECAST WITHIN 48 HOURS AS THE
 SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/13. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING AROUND THE
 PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS
 APPROXIMATE HEADING UNTIL LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
 TO A CONSENSUS OF A FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE SUITE.
  
 ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS VERY SMALL AND HAS A LIMITED WIND
 FIELD....HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE
 ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN
 ALABAMA.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/1500Z 28.7N  84.6W    30 KT
  12HR VT     17/0000Z 30.2N  85.8W    50 KT
  24HR VT     17/1200Z 32.1N  87.1W    35 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     18/0000Z 34.0N  88.2W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
  48HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN