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 774 
 WTNT43 KNHC 210923
 TCDAT3
  
 TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
 500 AM AST THU JUL 21 2011
 
 CORRECTED TIME IN SECOND PARAGRAPH
  
 CINDY HAS DEVELOPED A DOUGHNUT HOLE IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTION.
 WHILE I AM NOT READY TO CALL THIS AN EYE FEATURE...IT DOES SUPPORT
 INCREASING THE WIND SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 ONLY SUPPORT 35 KT...GRADIENT WIND COMPUTATIONS USING THE CENTRAL
 PRESSURE AND NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS OF 1022-1023 MB IN THE
 SOUTHEAST QUADRANT SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT. AS A
 RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KT FOR THIS
 ADVISORY...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045-24. CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN STRONG
 SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY
 ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE QUICKLY OVER MUCH COLDER WATER 
 IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED
 MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.
  
 SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR TERM AS CINDY
 REMAINS OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST 24C. BY 24 HOURS...HOWEVER...
 SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH
 COLDER WATER.  DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS DUE TO COLD
 WATER AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  21/0900Z 38.3N  49.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  21/1800Z 40.7N  45.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  22/0600Z 43.8N  40.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  22/1800Z 46.8N  34.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  23/0600Z 50.0N  27.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 
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