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 001 
 WTNT43 KNHC 110244
 TCDAT3
 
 Hurricane Chris Discussion Number  18
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
 1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018
 
 Chris has been rapidly intensifying since the center moved out of
 the area of upwelled cold water about 18 h ago, likely due to an
 inner core convective ring seen earlier in microwave imagery
 becoming a fully-developed eyewall as the cyclone encountered warmer
 water.  Satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB at 00Z were
 90 kt and 77 kt, and the CIMSS SATCON technique estimate was 90 kt.
 Based on this and a subsequent increase in organization, the initial
 intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 90 kt.
 
 The initial motion remains 050/9.  Chris is becoming embedded in
 the mid-latitude westerlies between the subtropical ridge to the
 southeast and a large deep-layer trough over eastern Canada and the
 northeastern United states.  The combination of these features
 should cause Chris to accelerate northeastward into the North
 Atlantic through 96 h, passing near southeastern Newfoundland in
 about 48 h. The new forecast track is a blend of the previous track
 and the HCCA and TVCN consensus models, and it is a little faster
 than the previous forecast.
 
 The eye of Chris is about to move over an area of slightly cooler
 water south of the core of the Gulf Stream, and this will likely
 slow the intensification rate.  Otherwise, conditions appear
 favorable for intensification for the next 18-24 h, and the
 intensity forecast shows a little more strengthening before Chris
 moves north of the Gulf Stream.  Extratropical transition should
 begin after Chris moves north of the Gulf Stream and be complete
 before the cyclone passes near southeastern Newfoundland.  After
 that, the extratropical low should gradually decay as it crosses
 the North Atlantic.  The new intensity forecast is increased from
 the previous forecast for the first 36 h based on current trends,
 and it has been lowered from the previous forecast between 72-120 h
 based on the latest guidance.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/0300Z 34.2N  71.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  11/1200Z 35.8N  69.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  12/0000Z 38.8N  64.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
  36H  12/1200Z 42.8N  59.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  13/0000Z 46.6N  53.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  14/0000Z 53.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  15/0000Z 57.0N  19.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  16/0000Z 61.5N  10.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
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