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 492 
 WTNT43 KNHC 092052
 TCDAT3
 
 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number  13
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018
 
 Satellite, Doppler radar, and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft data
 this afternoon indicate that inner-core region of Chris has
 improved in organization, and that the cyclone has strengthened
 some. A peak 850-mb flight-level of 73 kt was measured in the
 southwestern quadrant along with slightly rain-contaminated SFMR
 surface winds of 53-59 kt. The central pressure has also decreased
 to 997-996 mb. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased
 to 60 kt for this advisory.
 
 NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance fixes thus far today
 indicate that Chris has essentially remained nearly stationary for
 the past 9 hours. Steering should remain weak for the next 24 hours
 or so due to the cyclone being trapped in a large break in the
 subtropical ridge, thus little motion is expected.  However, by 36
 hours and beyond, a deepening mid-latitude trough along the U.S.
 Northeast and mid-Atlantic coasts is forecast to gradually lift out
 Chris to the northeast, with more significant northeastward
 acceleration occurring by 72 hours and beyond. Chris is expected to
 move across the offshore waters of Atlantic Canada on days 4 and 5
 as a powerful extratropical low, possibly passing over southeastern
 Newfoundland around the 96-hour time period. The NHC model guidance
 continues to show fairly significant along-track or speed
 differences. As a result, the official forecast track remains close
 to the consensus track models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.
 
 A band of very dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 45
 percent has completely encircled Chris, and the cyclone is beginning
 to take on the appearance of an annular formed hurricane with a new
 15-nmi-diameter, cloud-filled eye having within the central
 convective cloud mass during the past couple of hours. The
 well-defined inner-core wind field, in conjunction with the with
 SSTs near 28 deg C and a low vertical wind shear regime, should act
 to maintain inner-core convective development. The result should be
 gradual strengthening over the next day or, with Chris becoming a
 hurricane later tonight or Tuesday morning and reaching a peak
 intensity of 80 kt by 36 hours. Gradual weakening should commence by
 48 hours when the cyclone will be moving over cooler water and
 southwesterly wind shear begins to increase to near 20 kt. By 72
 hours and beyond, Chris will be over SSTs less than 20 deg C and
 within stronger shear environment ahead of an approaching deep-layer
 trough, which will induce a rapid transition to a powerful
 extratropical cyclone before the system approaches Newfoundland in
 about 96 hours. The extratropical low is forecast to merge with a
 cold front in 96-120 hours, which should enhance the extratropical
 transition process. The new NHC intensity forecast is just an update
 of previous two advisories, and similar to the intensity model FSSE,
 which is sightly higher than the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus
 models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/2100Z 32.2N  74.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  10/0600Z 32.3N  74.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  10/1800Z 32.8N  73.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  11/0600Z 34.0N  71.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  11/1800Z 36.1N  69.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  12/1800Z 42.2N  61.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  13/1800Z 48.3N  50.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  14/1800Z 52.0N  35.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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