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 421 
 WTNT43 KNHC 200247
 TCDAT3
  
 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032012
 1100 PM AST TUE JUN 19 2012
  
 CHRIS IS PRODUCING A CURLED...COMPACT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT
 IS DISPLACED JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
 CENTER.  TAFB AND SAB PROVIDED DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KT...AND THE
 LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT IS ABOUT 40 KT.  SINCE THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
 HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...THE INTENSITY WILL BE
 HELD AT 40 KT.
  
 CHRIS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DIGGING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...SO
 IT IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT A FASTER SPEED...OR
 110/11 KT.  A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE NORTHERN END
 OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE
 MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND CAUSE CHRIS TO FURTHER ACCELERATE
 TOWARD THE EAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  AFTER
 THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND STALLS...CHRIS WILL BEGIN TO LOOP
 CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW BY 48 AND 72 HOURS.  THE TRACK MODELS
 ALL AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO.  THE GFS AND ECMWF LIE ON THE WESTERN
 SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF LIE ON THE EASTERN
 SIDE.  GIVEN THE MID-LATITUDE ENVIRONMENT...THE NHC FORECAST LEANS
 MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS.  DISSIPATION IS
 FORECAST BY 96 HOURS WHEN CHRIS SHOULD BE FULLY ABSORBED WITHIN THE
 CLOSED LOW.
  
 THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT PROVIDE A CLEAR-CUT ANSWER OF
 WHEN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL END.  THE FSU PHASE-SPACE
 DIAGRAMS BASED OFF THE GFS SUGGEST THAT THE THERMAL STRUCTURE WILL
 BECOME INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC WITH A SHALLOWER WARM CORE DURING
 THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT CHRIS
 WILL AGAIN DEVELOP A DEEPER WARM CORE...BUT THIS MOST LIKELY IS
 REPRESENTATIVE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL WARM SECLUSION.  ON THIS
 BASIS...CHRIS IS FORECAST TO BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 HOURS. 
 DUE TO RELATIVELY COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE
 VERTICAL SHEAR...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE IN STRENGTH
 UNTIL IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND FEEDS OFF BAROCLINIC ENERGY
 ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  20/0300Z 38.8N  56.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  20/1200Z 38.7N  52.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  21/0000Z 39.5N  48.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  21/1200Z 41.4N  44.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  22/0000Z 43.7N  43.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  23/0000Z 44.5N  45.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  24/0000Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG
  
 
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