520 
 WTNT23 KNHC 040834
 TCMAT3
 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006
 0900 UTC FRI AUG 04 2006
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND
 FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
 ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A
 TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
 EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS
 IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
 STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
 WITHIN 36 HOURS.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
 HISPANIOLA FROM LA MOLE ST. NICOLAS HAITI EASTWARD TO SAMANA
 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
 STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE
 WITHIN 12 HOURS.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
 PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.
  
 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N  70.9W AT 04/0900Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  13 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
 34 KT....... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  45SW  90NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N  70.9W AT 04/0900Z
 AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N  70.2W
  
 FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.2N  72.8W
 MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.5N  75.3W
 MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.0N  78.0W
 MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.6N  80.6W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
  
 FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.0N  85.5W
 MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 24.5N  91.0W
 MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 25.0N  96.0W
 MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N  70.9W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
  
 $$
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA