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 331 
 WTNT43 KNHC 040300
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006
 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 03 2006
  
 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF
 CHRIS TONIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NO LONGER FULLY EXPOSED. IN
 ADDITION...THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
 OF 43 KT DURING ITS FINAL PASSES THROUGH THE STORM. THESE DATA
 INDICATE THAT CHRIS IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT MAXIMUM
 WINDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THE STORM APPROACHING THE COL
 BETWEEN A PAIR OF MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...ONE OVER FLORIDA AND
 THE OTHER A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. IF CHRIS
 REMAINS IN THE COL AREA... SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN BY ALL OF
 THE GLOBAL MODELS TOMORROW AND PERHAPS ALLOW CHRIS TO AT LEAST
 MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHIPS ALSO
 INDICATES THE STORM COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE NEARING CUBA
 IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. SINCE THE CONVECTION AROUND THE STORM IS A
 RELATIVELY NEW FEATURE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL INDICATE
 LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM...A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST AND SHIPS. IF THE STORM SURVIVES ITS INTERACTION WITH
 CUBA...IT MIGHT FIND A LIGHTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WARM GULF
 OF MEXICO AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE DURING
 THAT PERIOD.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10... A TOUCH FASTER THAN BEFORE.
 A LOW TO MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG TO THE
 NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING THE
 MOTION GENERALLY A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST. SOME ACCELERATION IS
 ALSO FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE PASSES DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE CORE OF
 RIDGE AXIS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH
 TONIGHT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS DISPLACED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD
 AS WELL.  THIS NEW TRACK IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF
 THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT MAINTAIN THE CIRCULATION OF CHRIS.  AFTER
 THE STORM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL
 HIGH IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS HIGH
 COULD INDUCE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IN THE LONG-TERM AND THIS IS
 REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/0300Z 20.8N  69.3W    35 KT
  12HR VT     04/1200Z 21.0N  70.9W    35 KT
  24HR VT     05/0000Z 21.4N  73.4W    35 KT
  36HR VT     05/1200Z 21.8N  76.0W    35 KT
  48HR VT     06/0000Z 22.3N  78.9W    35 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
  72HR VT     07/0000Z 23.5N  84.0W    30 KT
  96HR VT     08/0000Z 24.5N  89.0W    35 KT
 120HR VT     09/0000Z 25.0N  94.5W    40 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
  
 
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