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 945 
 FONT13 KNHC 012129
 PWSAT3
 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5    
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006               
 2130 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 2130Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR        
 LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
 WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                              
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
  
 DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
  
 ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
  
 COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
  
 FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)
  
 W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)
 W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
  
 MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   8(17)
 MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
  
 MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   9(18)
 MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
  
 KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   9(16)
 KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
  
 MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)
 MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
  
 FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)
  
 VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
  
 TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
  
 CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
  
 TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
  
 ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
  
 APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
  
 GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
  
 PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
  
 GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
  
 GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
  
 COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
  
 GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)
 GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
  
 NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   5(21)
 NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
 NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
  
 ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)   6(25)
 ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
  
 GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  14(26)   5(31)
 GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)
 GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
  
 SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)  10(25)   3(28)
 SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)
 SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
  
 MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  26(30)   8(38)   2(40)
 MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   5(17)   1(18)
 MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
  
 GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)  28(40)   5(45)   1(46)
 GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)   2(19)   X(19)
 GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
  
 CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
  
 HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)
 HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
  
 ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)
 ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
  
 CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   7(18)
 CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
  
 CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)   6(25)
 CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)
 CAMAGUEY       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
  
 GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  11(25)   3(28)
 GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)
  
 GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)
 GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
  
 MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   4(15)
 MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
  
 KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   4(14)
 KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
  
 LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   6(16)   1(17)
 LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
  
 PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   4(17)   1(18)
 PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
  
 CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)   3(13)   X(13)
 CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
  
 PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)  17(31)   3(34)   X(34)
 PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   1(11)   1(12)
 PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
  
 SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   9(21)   1(22)   1(23)
 SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
  
 PONCE          34  X   2( 2)  13(15)   6(21)   2(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 PONCE          50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 PONCE          64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 SAN JUAN       34  X   8( 8)  20(28)   5(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 SAN JUAN       50  X   2( 2)  10(12)   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 SAN JUAN       64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
  
 SAINT THOMAS   34  X  23(23)  14(37)   2(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 SAINT THOMAS   50  X   9( 9)   9(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 SAINT THOMAS   64  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
  
 SAINT CROIX    34  X  13(13)   7(20)   1(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 SAINT CROIX    50  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)
 SAINT CROIX    64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 SAINT MAARTEN  34 18  29(47)   2(49)   X(49)   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 SAINT MAARTEN  50  7  18(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 SAINT MAARTEN  64  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  5   5(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
  
 BARBUDA        34 24   2(26)   X(26)   X(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 BARBUDA        50 11   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
  
 ANTIGUA        34  4   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 185N  626W 34 48  22(70)   1(71)   1(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
  12 185N  626W 50 26  14(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
  12 185N  626W 64  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
  
  24 191N  645W 34  1  45(46)  14(60)   2(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
  24 191N  645W 50  X  24(24)  10(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
  24 191N  645W 64  X   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
  
  36 199N  666W 34  X   6( 6)  35(41)  10(51)   3(54)   1(55)   X(55)
  36 199N  666W 50  X   2( 2)  16(18)   7(25)   3(28)   X(28)   X(28)
  36 199N  666W 64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
  
  48 205N  687W 34  X   1( 1)  13(14)  21(35)  12(47)   1(48)   1(49)
  48 205N  687W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   6(21)   1(22)   X(22)
  48 205N  687W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
  
  
  72 215N  730W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  27(31)   9(40)   1(41)
  72 215N  730W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   4(16)   1(17)
  72 215N  730W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
  
  
  96 225N  770W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  14(23)   6(29)
  96 225N  770W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   3(11)
  96 225N  770W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
  
  
 120 235N  805W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   9(19)
 120 235N  805W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 120 235N  805W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND     55     60      60      60      65      65      65
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                     
                                                                     
 
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