304 
 WTNT43 KNHC 141509
 TCDAT3
 HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004
  
 AIRCRAFT...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
 CHARLEY IS ON THE COAST NEAR MYRTLE BEACH.  RECENT FLIGHT LEVEL
 WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE NEAR 90 KT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER
 ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE WAS 989
 MB.  SO THE WIND IS KEPT AT HURRICANE FORCE AT 15Z.  HOWEVER IT IS
 NOT CLEAR THAT THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ARE REACHING THE SURFACE AS
 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE STRONG FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ARE WAY
 BELOW HURRICANE FORCE.  IN ANY CASE...CHARLY WILL SOON WEAKEN BELOW
 HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER LAND IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY DONE SO.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/24.  THE TRACK SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME
 WITH AMID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVING EASTWARD. 
 THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ABOUT A CONTINUED
 NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
 AFTER 24 HOURS.  CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRANSFORM TO AN
 EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FURTHER NORTH.
 
 FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/1500Z 33.2N  79.0W    65 KT
  12HR VT     15/0000Z 36.7N  76.9W    50 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     15/1200Z 41.0N  74.0W    35 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     16/0000Z 44.6N  69.7W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     16/1200Z 47.0N  65.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     17/1200Z 49.0N  54.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     18/1200Z 49.0N  44.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     19/1200Z 49.0N  31.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
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