535 
 WTNT43 KNHC 130853
 TCDAT3
 HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
  
 RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT AFTER CROSSING CUBA...THE
 EYE STILL REMAINS WELL-DEFINED WITH ABOUT AN 18 N MI DIAMETER. MAX
 WINDS REPORTED BY THE PLANE WERE 104 KNOTS AT 700 MB WITH AN
 EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 968 MB AND 970 MB BY A DROP. KEY WEST
 RADAR SHOWED DOPPLER WINDS HIGHER THAN 100 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY
 IS BEING ADJUSTED TO 95 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK FOR
 THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THE WATER IS WARM. THEREFORE....CHARLEY IS
 LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL.
  
 CHARLEY IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THERE
 HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN GUIDANCE AND MOST OF THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY
 BRING THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK.
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE HURRICANE VERY CLOSE TO THE WEST
 COAST OF FLORIDA BRINGING THE CENTER INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
 BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS.
  
 DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK FORECAST...THE HURRICANE
 WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
 TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER. THE EXTENTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
 WIND RADII TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM
 WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS AS
 INDICATED.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/0900Z 23.9N  82.9W    95 KT
  12HR VT     13/1800Z 26.3N  82.9W   105 KT
  24HR VT     14/0600Z 29.8N  82.5W    80 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     14/1800Z 33.0N  81.0W    40 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     15/0600Z 38.0N  78.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     16/0600Z 45.5N  73.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     17/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
  
  
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