007 
 WTNT43 KNHC 122040
 TCDAT3
 HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004
  
 CHARLEY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BASED ON
 DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND RADARS
 FROM CUBA. WHILE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ONLY DECREASED TO 980 MB
 ...THE HURRICANE IS MOVING INTO A REGION OF HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
 SURFACE PRESSURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THEREFORE...THE USUAL
 PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP MAY NOT BE VALID...AT THIS TIME. THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT IS BASED ON A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 105
 KT...OR A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF 95 KT...AND A 92 KT DROPSONDE
 SURFACE WIND. A SMALL EYE HAS BECOME QUITE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE
 IMAGERY AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND EXPAND IN
 ALL QUADRANTS AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/15. CHARLEY BASICALLY REMAINS ON
 TRACK. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS SOMETHING OF A QUANDARY WITH THE
 LATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. THE NEW GFDL AND UKMET RUNS HAVE MADE A
 WIDE TURN 75 TO 150 NMI LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND
 MOST OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND NHC MODELS HAVE ALSO MADE A
 WESTWARD SHIFT. HOWEVER...THE 6- AND 12-HOUR GFDL AND UKMET
 FORECAST POSITIONS ARE ALREADY 30 TO 60 NMI WEST OR LEFT OF THE
 CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. A STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH NOTED DIGGING
 SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN WATER VAPOR
 IMAGERY SHOULD HELP TO BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD MOTION. BASED
 ON THE DEVELOPING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN
 OVER THE GULF...AND AN APPARENT LEFT BIAS BY MOST OF THE MODEL
 GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE AND EXTENSION OF
 THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECAST TRACKS.
 
 THE UPPER-LOW TO THE WEST OF CHARLEY IS NO LONGER AN INHIBITING
 FACTOR. IN CONTRAST...CHARLEY HAS DEVELOPED WELL-DEFINED
 UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT SHOWS SIGNS OF ONLY GETTING
 BETTER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE SMALL EYE FEATURE AND AN
 ABUNDANCE OF WARM WATER AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE...CHARLEY IS
 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING...POSSIBLY EVEN RAPIDLY
 INTENSIFYING...AND BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
 OVER WESTERN CUBA THIS EVENING. THE TERRAIN OVER WESTERN CUBA IS
 NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AND LITTLE...IF ANY...DISRUPTION OF THE
 CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW REGIME THAT
 IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF
 BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS...MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH
 SEEMS QUITE PROBABLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
 CHARLEY COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BETWEEN THE 12 AND 24 HOURS
 TIME PERIODS...AND THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL DUE
 TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER COASTAL WATERS AROUND THE
 TAMPA BAY AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS
 AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS.
 
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/2100Z 21.2N  81.9W    90 KT
  12HR VT     13/0600Z 23.1N  82.7W   100 KT
  24HR VT     13/1800Z 26.5N  83.0W   105 KT
  36HR VT     14/0600Z 30.5N  82.3W    65 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     14/1800Z 34.2N  80.0W    45 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     15/1800Z 42.0N  75.0W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     16/1800Z 48.5N  65.0W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     17/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
  
  
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