260 
 WTNT43 KNHC 101429
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004
 
 THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. 
 BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND DVORAK
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...35 KT...AND 45 KT...FROM
 AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40
 KT.  AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK OUT THE STORM LATER
 TODAY AND SHOULD GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF CHARLEY. 
 UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS PARTICULARLY PROMINENT OVER THE NORTHERN
 SEMICIRCLE...AND THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
 STRENGTHENING.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE
 IN STRENGTH BUT IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS OR GFDL
 GUIDANCE.  CHARLEY IS LIKELY TO BE A HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWEST
 CARIBBEAN BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
 INTENSITY PREDICTIONS AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.
 
 THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A BIT BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT
 OVERPASS...AND THE 12 FT SEAS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A REPORT FROM
 SHIP ELWR5 TO THE NORTHWEST OF CHARLEY.
 
 THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ESTIMATED MOTION. 
 CHARLEY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A SWIFT EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT TO
 THE SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER HIGH.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS RATHER
 TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...BUT BECOMES MORE
 DIVERGENT THEREAFTER.  BY THAT TIME...THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL
 LIKELY WEAKEN AS A RESULT OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER
 THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE THE
 EASTERNMOST OF THE ENSEMBLE WITH THE NOGAPS AND U.K. MET. OFFICE
 TRACKS SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.  HOWEVER
 THESE LATTER TWO TRACKS ARE PROBABLY TOO FAR TO THE LEFT BECAUSE OF
 AN UNREALISTICALLY WEAK VORTEX IN THE SIMULATION.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/GFDL SOLUTIONS.
  
 FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      10/1500Z 13.7N  68.3W    40 KT
  12HR VT     11/0000Z 14.5N  71.3W    45 KT
  24HR VT     11/1200Z 15.7N  75.0W    50 KT
  36HR VT     12/0000Z 17.0N  78.0W    55 KT
  48HR VT     12/1200Z 18.3N  80.5W    60 KT
  72HR VT     13/1200Z 20.5N  84.5W    70 KT
  96HR VT     14/1200Z 24.0N  86.5W    80 KT
 120HR VT     15/1200Z 28.0N  87.0W    85 KT
  
 $$