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 073 
 WTNT43 KNHC 100837
 TCDAT3
  
 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013
 500 AM AST WED JUL 10 2013
  
 OBSERVATIONS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION AND NOAA DATA BUOY
 42059 INDICATE THAT CHANTAL MAY NO LONGER HAVE A CLOSED
 CIRCULATION.  THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO
 DETERIORATED MARKEDLY THIS MORNING...AND IS BARELY CLASSIFIABLE BY
 THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.  FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS DO NOT
 SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF MORE THAN 40 KT...AND THE CURRENT WIND
 SPEED IS SET AT THAT VALUE.  EVEN IF CHANTAL DOES NOT CEASE ITS
 EXISTENCE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG
 WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE
 SHEAR...ALONG WITH LAND INTERACTION...SHOULD CAUSE FURTHER
 WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
 STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL
 CONSENSUS.
 
 ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK...THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
 THAT CHANTAL MOVED VERY RAPIDLY WESTWARD...NEAR 28 KT...OVER THE
 PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  A MORE CONSERVATIVE...LONGER-TERM...ESTIMATE
 OF INITIAL MOTION IS 285/25.  A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
 NORTH OF THE STORM HAS BEEN STEERING IT QUICKLY WESTWARD TO
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
 EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD RESULT IN
 CHANTAL...OR ITS REMNANT...TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
 OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  SINCE THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN
 SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY WESTWARD IN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY... THIS NECESSITATES A LARGE WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE NHC
 FORECAST TRACK.  NONETHELESS...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL
 ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.
 
 SINCE THE CYCLONE MAY BE OPENING UP INTO A WAVE...ADVISORIES MAY BE
 DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  10/0900Z 16.5N  69.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  10/1800Z 17.8N  72.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  11/0600Z 19.5N  75.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  11/1800Z 21.5N  78.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  48H  12/0600Z 23.8N  79.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  13/0600Z 27.5N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  14/0600Z 31.0N  81.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  15/0600Z 32.5N  82.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
  
 
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