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 206 
 WTNT43 KNHC 311432
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032007
 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007
 
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CHANTAL HAS STRENGTHENED THIS
 MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE CURVED BANDING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
 SEMICIRCLE.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE STORM APPEARS TO BE
 DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A CLEARLY IDENTIFIABLE MID-LEVEL
 CENTER ON SATELLITE.  A QUIKSCAT PASS JUST BEFORE 1000 UTC SHOWED
 BELIEVABLE WIND VECTORS IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE AND THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY WILL BE SET TO 45 KT.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS QUICKLY
 MOVING INTO COOLER WATERS AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AS A
 TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED.  GLOBAL COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT
 CHANTAL WILL BECOME THE MAIN PART OF A LARGE POWERFUL LOW OVER THE
 NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A LITTLE ADDITIONAL BAROCLINIC
 STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN A COUPLE DAYS.  
 
 THE STORM IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 25 KT.  THIS
 GENERAL MOTION...WITH SOME ACCELERATION...IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
 DAY OR TWO AS CHANTAL IS STEERED BY A DEEPENING MIDDLE-LATITUDE
 TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
 AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY
 AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      31/1500Z 40.2N  62.7W    45 KT
  12HR VT     01/0000Z 43.0N  59.7W    45 KT
  24HR VT     01/1200Z 47.0N  52.7W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     02/0000Z 51.2N  44.7W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     02/1200Z 56.0N  36.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     03/1200Z 60.0N  27.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     04/1200Z 62.0N  20.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     05/1200Z 64.5N  12.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE
  
 
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