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 844 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 150840
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016
 
 Enhanced infrared imagery and a recent SSMIS microwave overpass
 show all that remains of Celia's deep convective cloud pattern is a
 fragmented curved band displaced about 60 nm north-northeast of the
 exposed circulation center.  The initial intensity is lowered to 40
 kt, but is quite a bit higher than the subjective satellite
 intensity estimates out of respect for the 45-50 kt winds that were
 depicted in the earlier 14/1912 UTC ASCAT pass. Celia should
 continue to gradually spin down, due to the sub-24C SSTs and the
 surrounding stable air mass, and become a post-tropical cyclone by
 tonight.  Although the latest Remote Sensing System's latest SST
 analysis indicates slightly warmer SSTs of 25-26C ahead of Celia,
 the global models still show increasing westerly shear in 36 hours,
 which is expected to hamper any regeneration potential.  The
 intensity forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is
 hedged toward the multi-model consensus and the GFS/ECMWF
 large-scale models.
 
 Celia has been moving west-northwestward or 285/11 kt.  The
 cyclone is forecast to turn westward later today as it weakens
 further, becoming a shallow system, and is steered by the
 low-level trades.  The model guidance reflects this scenario well
 and the official NHC forecast splits between the previous forecast
 track and the multi-model consensus.
 
 Celia has moved into the Central Pacific basin.  Therefore, this is
 the last advisory on this system by the National Hurricane Center.
 Subsequent advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific
 Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/0900Z 22.0N 140.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  15/1800Z 22.2N 142.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  24H  16/0600Z 22.4N 144.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  16/1800Z 22.7N 146.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  17/0600Z 23.2N 148.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  18/0600Z 24.1N 153.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  19/0600Z 25.0N 158.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  20/0600Z 26.3N 163.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts
 
 
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