696 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 132035
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
 200 PM PDT WED JUL 13 2016
 
 Deep convection associated with Celia has practically vanished, and
 consequently the Dvorak subjective and objective T-numbers have
 continued to decrease. However, the cyclone still has a vigorous
 circulation, and the best estimate of the initial intensity is 45
 kt.
 
 The circulation of Celia is moving over waters of about 24 degree
 Celsius and cooling, while the wind shear is forecast to gradually
 increase. These conditions will result in additional weakening, and
 Celia is expected to degenerate into a tropical depression in about
 a day, and into a remnant low soon thereafter. The NHC forecast
 is following SHIPS guidance.
 
 The cyclone appears to be moving toward the west-northwest or 300
 degrees at 11 kt around the periphery of the subtropical ridge.
 Given that Celia is already weakening and becoming a shallow
 system, it will be steered by the low-level flow on a general
 west to west-northwest track for the next several days until
 dissipation.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  13/2100Z 19.5N 133.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  14/0600Z 20.3N 135.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  14/1800Z 21.2N 137.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  15/0600Z 21.7N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  15/1800Z 22.0N 142.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  16/1800Z 22.5N 147.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  17/1800Z 23.5N 151.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  18/1800Z 24.0N 156.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila