020 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 131435
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
 800 AM PDT WED JUL 13 2016
 
 The cloud pattern is gradually deteriorating, and deep convection
 is confined to a small area near the center. Microwave and
 conventional infrared images continue to show that the low- and
 mid-level centers are not vertically aligned, which is another
 indication of weakening.  In addition, subjective Dvorak estimates
 from TAFB and SAB, as well as objective numbers from CIMMS, argue
 for a reduction of the winds. Therefore, the initial intensity is
 set at 55 kt.
 
 Celia is already over cooler waters, and the wind shear is forecast
 to gradually increase. The presence of these conditions will
 result in weakening, and Celia is expected to degenerate into a
 tropical depression in a couple of days or sooner and into a remnant
 low thereafter. The NHC forecast follows the trend of the SHIPS
 guidance and the intensity model consensus.
 
 The cyclone appears to be moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees
 at 10 kt around the periphery of the subtropical ridge. Given that
 Celia is forecast to weaken and become a shallow system, the cyclone
 most likely will move toward the west in a couple of days steered by
 the prevailing low-level easterly flow. All track models are tightly
 clustered, and the NHC forecast, which is similar to the previous
 one, is in the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  13/1500Z 19.1N 132.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  14/0000Z 19.8N 134.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  14/1200Z 20.8N 136.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  15/0000Z 21.7N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  15/1200Z 22.0N 140.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  16/1200Z 23.0N 145.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  17/1200Z 23.5N 150.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  18/1200Z 24.0N 154.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila