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 155 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 122034
 TCDEP4
 
 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016
 
 The cloud pattern consists of a large ragged eye surrounded by a
 ring of moderate convection and a convective curved band to the
 east of the eye. The overall amount of convection has been
 decreasing during the past 12 hours. The Dvorak T-numbers have
 decreased slightly during the day, and the best estimate of the
 current intensity is 70 kt. The circulation of Celia has continued
 to move over increasingly cooler waters, and SHIPS guidance
 indicates a gradual increase in shear. On this basis, the NHC
 forecast calls for weakening, and Celia is forecast to be a tropical
 depression in about 3 days or sooner.
 
 The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest
 or 300 degrees at about 11 kt. Global models continue to show a
 persistent moderate subtropical ridge north of Celia. This pattern
 will continue to steer the cyclone on a west-northwesterly track
 for the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, Celia should have become
 a shallow cyclone, and will likely move on a westward track steered
 by the low-level flow. The track guidance continues to be in very
 good agreement, and there is high confidence in the forecast.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  12/2100Z 17.4N 129.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  13/0600Z 18.4N 130.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  13/1800Z 19.6N 133.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  14/0600Z 20.5N 135.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  14/1800Z 21.3N 137.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  15/1800Z 22.5N 141.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  16/1800Z 23.0N 146.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 120H  17/1800Z 24.0N 150.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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