189 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 111440
 TCDEP4
 
 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
 800 AM PDT MON JUL 11 2016
 
 After developing what had been a decent looking eye with a diameter
 of about 20 nmi, dry air has once again penetrated into the
 inner-core region and has eroded most of the eyewall convection.
 Satellite current intensity estimates range from T4.5/77 kt from
 TAFB and SAB to as high as T5.4/100 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Given the
 ragged-appearing inner-core region in the last few images, the
 intensity is only raised to 80 kt for this advisory, which is
 consistent with a 1200 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON consensus of 82 kt.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 275/11 kt. A westward motion is
 expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
 west-northwest late tonight as Celia begins to move into a
 developing weakness in the subtropical ridge.  This weakness will be
 created by a narrow mid-level trough along 130W longitude that is
 digging southward as noted in water vapor imagery. The shortwave
 trough is forecast to weaken by 72 h and lift out to the north or
 northeast, which will allow the ridge to rebuild and force Celia
 back on a more westward track on days 3-5. Similar to the previous
 advisory, the NHC track model guidance remains in excellent
 agreement on this scenario and is tightly packed around the previous
 forecast track. As a result, the new forecast track is essentially
 just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies just
 south of the TVCN consensus model.
 
 Celia likely only has another 12 hours or so to strengthen while the
 hurricane remains over SSTs above 26.5 deg C. The overall mid-level
 environment is fairly moist and the vertical shear is expected to
 remain light, which should favor some additional intensification. By
 36 hours, however, Celia will be moving over sub-26C SSTs, which
 should induce slow but steady weakening through the remainder of the
 forecast period. However, since the vertical wind shear is expected
 to remain low, Celia is forecast to still be a tropical cyclone when
 it crosses 140W longitude and moves into the Central Pacific basin
 in about 96 hours. The new intensity forecast is similar to the
 previous advisory, and lies above all of the intensity guidance
 through 36 h, and then lies near or below the guidance after that
 during the weakening phase.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/1500Z 15.1N 125.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  12/0000Z 15.5N 126.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
  24H  12/1200Z 16.1N 128.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  13/0000Z 17.1N 130.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  13/1200Z 18.2N 132.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  14/1200Z 20.1N 136.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  15/1200Z 21.1N 140.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  16/1200Z 21.6N 145.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart