Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 519 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 090835
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016
 
 The cool wake from Hurricane Blas continues to affect Celia.  The
 convective pattern is quite ragged, with a small CDO feature but
 little in the way of convective banding.  The initial intensity is
 set to 35 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective
 Dvorak estimates.  Celia should begin moving over warmer waters
 during the next 12 to 24 hours, which should allow for an increase
 in convective organization and some strengthening.  Celia is
 forecast to peak in about 72 hours and then move over cooler waters
 again, which should result in slow weakening late in the period. The
 new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest SHIPS model and is
 a bit above the latest intensity consensus.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 290/11, as Celia has accelerated
 since the previous advisory.  A westward motion to the south of a
 building subtropical ridge is expected to begin later today and
 continue through 48 hours.  After that time, the cyclone should
 reach the southwestern edge of the ridge and turn west-northwestward
 at a slightly slower speed.  The new NHC track forecast is close to
 the previous one through 48 hours, but a little faster given the
 quicker initial motion.  At days 3 through 5 the NHC track has been
 shifted a little to the south of the previous one and lies slightly
 north of the latest GFS/ECMWF consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/0900Z 14.2N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  09/1800Z 14.5N 117.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  10/0600Z 14.7N 119.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  10/1800Z 14.7N 122.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  11/0600Z 14.8N 124.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  12/0600Z 15.7N 128.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
  96H  13/0600Z 17.1N 131.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  14/0600Z 19.0N 136.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for CELIA

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman