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 294 
 WTPA42 PHFO 160241
 TCDCP2
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP042016
 500 PM HST FRI JUL 15 2016
  
 Celia continues to weaken this afternoon with no deep convection
 associated with this system. The latest intensity fixes from 
 PHFO and JTWC all indicated that the system is too weak to classify
 due to the lack of deep convection. Thus we have downgraded Celia to
 a 30 kt post tropical/remnant low with the strongest winds likely in
 the northern semicircle of the system.
  
 The well defined low level center of Celia continues to move nearly
 due west at around 11 kt. This westward motion is expected to
 continue over the next few days as Celia will remain embedded
 in moderate trade wind flow south of strong high pressure centered
 far north of the main Hawaiian Islands. By around days 4 and 5,
 the remnants of Celia are expected to gradually make a turn toward
 the northwest as the system will then lie far southwest of the
 high's center. Only small fluctuations in forward speed are expected
 during the next several days. The latest track is very similar to
 the previous track and closely follows the TVCE multi-model
 consensus.
 
 Celia has been moving over sea surface temperatures of around 24C,
 and is embedded within a stable airmass as well. Slightly warmer
 SSTs around 25C lie along the forecast track, but SHIPS guidance and
 global models depict a further increase in westerly vertical wind
 shear during the next 12 to 24 hours, which should prevent
 regeneration. It should be noted that the global models do maintain
 a distinct remnant low through the next several days, with near 30
 kt winds persisting between the low and strong high pressure over
 the North Pacific.
 
 This will be the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific
 Hurricane Center on Celia unless regeneration occurs. Additional
 information on this system can be found in the High Seas Forecasts
 issued by the National Weather Service in Honolulu under AWIPS
 header HFOHSFNP and WMO header FZPN40 PHFO.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  16/0300Z 22.4N 143.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  12H  16/1200Z 22.5N 145.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  17/0000Z 22.8N 147.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  17/1200Z 23.2N 150.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  18/0000Z 23.6N 152.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  19/0000Z 24.4N 157.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  20/0000Z 25.6N 162.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  21/0000Z 27.3N 167.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 Forecaster Burke
 
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