322 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 270859
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
 200 AM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010
  
 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME RATHER LIMITED THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
 CELLS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF CELIA. 
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET AT 45 KT...AND IS
 BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
 SAB...AND A CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 43 KT.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS
 ANTICIPATED...AND CELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN LESS
 THAN 2 DAYS AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE AROUND DAY 3.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/5....AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE DECAYS TO A REMNANT LOW.
 SOME REDUCTION IS FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24
 HOURS AS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
 NORTH ERODES IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
 APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
 FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS COMPRISED OF A BLEND OF THE
 DYNAMICAL MODELS.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/0900Z 15.9N 123.4W    45 KT
  12HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N 124.1W    35 KT
  24HR VT     28/0600Z 16.0N 124.7W    30 KT
  36HR VT     28/1800Z 16.0N 125.3W    25 KT
  48HR VT     29/0600Z 16.0N 125.8W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72HR VT     30/0600Z 16.0N 127.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
  
 
 
 323 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 270859
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010
 200 AM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010
  
 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DARBY HAS BEEN BURSTING
 INTERMITTENTLY THIS MORNING...BUT IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE
 CIRCULATION CENTER.  UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES 30 KT OF
 EASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF
 OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
 THE OUTFLOW PATTERN OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 IS BASED ON A FEW INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS...AN AMSU ESTIMATE
 OF 38 KT...A SATELLITE CONSENSUS MEASUREMENT OF 53 KT...AND
 CONSTRAINED BY RULES...DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 66 KT AND 55
 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT.  THE SHIPS
 MODEL...LGEM...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERLY
 SHEAR AFFECTING DARBY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING
 IN A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
 SUIT AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS REDUCING
 DARBY TO A REMNANT LOW SWIRL OF CLOUDS IN 3 DAYS OR LESS.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/3...WITHIN THE LIGHT EASTERLY LOW
 TO MID-LEVEL FLOW GENERATED BY A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE NORTH OF
 DARBY FROM CENTRAL MEXICO.  SINCE DARBY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
 CONSIDERABLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE DECAYING CYCLONE
 SHOULD MAKE A TURN NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE 24 HR PERIOD IN
 RESPONSE TO THE RATHER LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
 STORM ALEX CURRENTLY MOVING OVER YUCATAN.  THE OFFICIAL NHC
 FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT A LITTLE SLOWER ON
 THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...AND HEDGES TOWARD THE TVCN MODEL
 CONSENSUS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/0900Z 13.5N 103.3W    50 KT
  12HR VT     27/1800Z 13.5N 103.4W    40 KT
  24HR VT     28/0600Z 13.9N 103.0W    35 KT
  36HR VT     28/1800Z 14.2N 102.5W    25 KT
  48HR VT     29/0600Z 14.5N 101.9W    25 KT
  72HR VT     30/0600Z 14.9N 100.9W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART