466 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 240244
 TCDEP4
 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
 800 PM PDT WED JUN 23 2010
  
  
 THE DEVELOPMENTAL TREND THAT CELIA WAS EXPERIENCING EARLIER HAS BEEN
 DISRUPTED. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS DISAPPEARED AND THE
 CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC. AN 2129 UTC AMSU-B
 OVERPASS DEPICTED A CLOSED EYE BUT THE INNER CORE ORGANIZATION OF
 THE HURRICANE HAS DETERIORATED FURTHER SINCE THEN. IN ADDITION...A
 WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURE NOTED SEVERAL HOURS AGO HAS SHRUNK
 CONSIDERABLY.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 4.5 AND
 5.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY.  BASED UPON THE THESE AND THE
 DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF CELIA IS
 LOWERED TO 90 KT.
  
 RECENT CENTER FIXES...THOUGH SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...YIELD THE SAME
 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...280/11. LARGE-
 SCALE MODELS SHOW CELIA MAINTAINING A WESTERLY MOTION DURING THE
 NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
 NORTH. THEREAFTER...AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
 INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
 ENOUGH TO IMPART CELIA WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH AT
 LEAST 72 HOURS.  BEYOND 72 HOURS..MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
 MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE
 CYCLONE...TAKING IT BACK ON A WESTERLY COURSE AT A SLOWER FORWARD
 SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE
 PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 THE RECENT INTENSITY TRENDS ARE PUZZLING...AND IT IS NOT CLEAR WHAT
 HAS LED TO THE CURRENT DISORGANIZED STATE. SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE
 INDICATES THAT CELIA REMAINS IN A VERY LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER
 HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD FAVOR MAINTENANCE OF ITS
 CURRENT INTENSITY OR PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IN THE
 SHORT-TERM. CELIA SHOULD REACH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS BEYOND 48
 HOURS AND BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND WHICH SHOULD BECOME FASTER TOWARD
 THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
 DOWNWARD...CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE
 WHICH NO LONGER STRENGTHEN THE HURRICANE AS MUCH.
  
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/0300Z 12.4N 111.5W    90 KT
  12HR VT     24/1200Z 12.8N 113.4W   100 KT
  24HR VT     25/0000Z 13.5N 115.8W   105 KT
  36HR VT     25/1200Z 14.1N 118.1W   100 KT
  48HR VT     26/0000Z 14.8N 120.1W    90 KT
  72HR VT     27/0000Z 15.9N 123.5W    65 KT
  96HR VT     28/0000Z 16.2N 125.5W    55 KT
 120HR VT     29/0000Z 16.5N 126.5W    40 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN