980 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 220832
 TCDEP4
 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT THU JUL 22 2004
 
 THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 77 KT FROM
 TAFB AND SAB AND 65 KT FROM AFWA.  THE 77 KT ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON
 THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...AND WITH INFRARED IMAGERY THERE IS A
 GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EMBEDDED DISTANCE.  MOREOVER...THE
 CLOUD PATTERN IS RATHER AMORPHOUS WITH NO WELL-DEFINED BANDING
 FEATURES...AND NO APPARENT EYE.  HIGH-RESOLUTION DATA FROM A
 QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0206 UTC SHOWED A 65 KT SURFACE WIND SPEED. 
 THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY...TO 70 KT.  CELIA
 SHOULD BE NEAR PEAK INTENSITY THIS MORNING AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
 LIKELY TO BEGIN WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY
 COOLER WATERS.  IN 2-3 DAYS CELIA WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED THE 25
 DEG C SST ISOTHERM...AND SHOULD BE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY.
 
 THE MOTION CONTINUES SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST AT AROUND 6 KT...WHICH
 IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.  THE TRACK FORECAST
 PHILOSOPHY REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST SEVERAL
 ADVISORY PACKAGES.  A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST TO THE
 NORTH OF CELIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THEREFORE A WEST-
 NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
 FORECAST PERIOD.  AS IN EARLIER RUNS...THE GFS MODEL HAS
 UNDER-INITIALIZED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...SO THE OBJECTIVE VORTEX
 TRACKER IS UNABLE TO FOLLOW A CENTER.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
 NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN UNREALISTICALLY LARGE STORM
 IN THE INITIAL STATE.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE
 TO THE LATEST GFDL...GFDN...AND U.K. MET OFFICE GUIDANCE...AND
 FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK.
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      22/0900Z 16.5N 122.0W    70 KT
  12HR VT     22/1800Z 16.7N 123.1W    70 KT
  24HR VT     23/0600Z 17.0N 124.5W    65 KT
  36HR VT     23/1800Z 17.3N 126.2W    55 KT
  48HR VT     24/0600Z 17.6N 127.9W    45 KT
  72HR VT     25/0600Z 18.0N 131.5W    30 KT
  96HR VT     26/0600Z 18.0N 135.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 120HR VT     27/0600Z 18.0N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
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