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 716 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 190832
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT MON JUL 19 2004
 
 LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 30 KT. 
 NON-RAIN-CONTAMINATED VECTORS ON A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS
 AGO SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE.  THEREFORE THE
 SYSTEM IS KEPT AT DEPRESSION STATUS.  DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
 WITH THE DEPRESSION HAD BEEN RATHER MEAGER...BUT RECENT SATELLITE
 IMAGES SHOW AN INCREASE OF CONVECTION OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER
 POSITION.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE WELL-DEFINED OVER
 THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
 EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
 FOR AT LEAST 72 HOURS.  MITIGATING FACTORS FOR STRENGTHENING COULD
 BE THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR
 MASS...AS IMPLIED BY THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD ENVIRONMENT. 
 DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...I.E. THE GFDL AND GLOBAL MODELS...SHOW LITTLE
 OR NO STRENGTHENING...BUT OF COURSE THESE MODELS HAVE LIMITED SKILL
 IN FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
 GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION... AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS IS A
 LITTLE LESS STRENGTHENING THAN PREDICTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
 THE MOTION CONTINUES GENERALLY WESTWARD.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
 REMAIN ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
 NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE
 FORECAST PERIOD.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER
 THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT FASTER THAN SHOWN BY THE LATEST
 DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU.
  
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      19/0900Z 14.5N 114.5W    30 KT
  12HR VT     19/1800Z 14.7N 116.1W    35 KT
  24HR VT     20/0600Z 14.9N 118.2W    40 KT
  36HR VT     20/1800Z 15.1N 120.3W    45 KT
  48HR VT     21/0600Z 15.3N 122.4W    50 KT
  72HR VT     22/0600Z 15.7N 126.5W    50 KT
  96HR VT     23/0600Z 16.0N 130.5W    50 KT
 120HR VT     24/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W    50 KT
  
 $$
 
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