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 278 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 172035
 TCDEP4
 
 Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number  13
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018
 
 Data from a recent scatterometer pass indicated Carlotta still had
 a small circulation, but that it was quite weak with maximum winds
 near 25 kt.  Persistent northerly shear continues to affect the
 depression.  The system has lacked much organized deep convection
 for the past several hours and it is likely to degenerate into a
 remnant low overnight.  Accordingly, the official forecast shows the
 system becoming post-tropical by early Monday.
 
 Based on the ASCAT observations, the center has been re-positioned a
 little to the southeast of the previous track.  The initial motion
 estimate is now 300/6 kt.  High pressure to the north of Carlotta
 should maintain a general west-northwestward track for the next day
 or two.
 
 The main threat from Carlotta continues to be heavy rains over the
 southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima.
 These rains, which will likely be enhanced by moist upslope flow
 over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico, could produce
 life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.  Consult products
 issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  17/2100Z 17.1N 101.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  18/0600Z 17.5N 102.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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