961 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 170840
 TCDEP4
 
 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number  11
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018
 
 The Acapulco Radar from the Mexican Weather Service has been very
 useful in diagnosis and tracking Carlotta tonight.  Now that a
 portion of the circulation is interacting with land, the radar
 presentation has deteriorated compared with several hours ago, and
 the cloud pattern observed on satellite has become shapeless. The
 cyclone is so tiny than even the ASCAT did not completely identified
 the cyclone, but at least it measured a few 35-kt wind vectors.
 None of the global models acknowledge the presence of Carlotta in
 the analysis.  Dvorak T-numbers from al agencies are decreasing, and
 on this basis, the initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt.
 
 Since the interaction with land is expected to continue, the NHC
 forecast calls for gradual weakening, and this will occur at a
 faster rate if the cyclone moves inland within the next 12 to 24
 hours as anticipated.
 
 Yesterday, the forecast was for Carlotta to move northeastward or
 northward. The steering currents changed slightly tonight, and
 instead, the tiny cyclone is now moving toward the northwest at
 about 6 kt or faster. The limited available guidance suggests that
 this general motion should continue until dissipation in 36 hours or
 so. Since the cyclone is not depicted by the global models, the
 forecast is highly uncertain.
 
 Given the northwest track, the Government of Mexico has extended the
 Tropical Storm Warning westward along the coast. It must be
 emphasized that regardless of whether the center moves inland or
 continues moving along the coast, the main threat of heavy rainfall
 and potential of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
 continue over the southern parts of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan.
 The rainfall threat will be enhanced by moist southwesterly flow
 over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico.  For details,
 please see products issued by your local weather office.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  17/0900Z 17.0N 100.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  17/1800Z 17.4N 101.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  18/0600Z 17.9N 101.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  36H  18/1800Z 18.5N 102.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  48H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila