609 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 170235
 TCDEP3
  
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
 800 PM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012
  
 THE BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA IS STILL NOTICEABLE
 IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...THE SURFACE
 CENTER IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
 SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS
 ORGANIZATION.  CARLOTTA HAS THEREFORE BECOME A REMNANT LOW.
 
 THE LOW IS MOVING AT 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT AND SHOULD KEEP THIS MOTION
 UNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
 THAT ANY LEFTOVER LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SPIN IN THE ATMOSPHERE COULD
 MERGE WITH OR BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER CIRCULATION FARTHER WEST OVER
 THE PACIFIC IN A FEW DAYS.
 
 VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN AND
 SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO.  EVEN THOUGH CARLOTTA
 SHOULD DISSIPATE...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS
 FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COULD LEAD TO LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
 FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  17/0300Z 18.1N 100.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  12H  17/1200Z 18.2N 100.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG