917 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 160836
 TCDEP3
  
 HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
 200 AM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012
  
 CARLOTTA IS LOCATED LESS THAN 30 N MI INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE OF
 SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE HIGH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IS
 STEADILY TAKING ITS TOLL ON THE HURRICANE AS INDICATED BY BOTH
 SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE PRIMARY SUPPORT FOR KEEPING
 CARLOTTA AS A HURRICANE IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE PREVIOUS
 RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...WHICH INDICATED THAT 65- TO 70-KT
 SURFACE WINDS WERE LOCATED ABOUT 40 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 THIS WOULD PLACE THESE WINDS ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF
 MEXICO...WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS OCCURRING IN
 THAT AREA AS NOTED IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11 KT...AND IS BASED MAINLY ON A
 16/0328Z AMSU EYE POSITION AND ANIMATION OF THE ACAPULCO MEXICO
 RADAR DATA. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD A
 MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO OVER
 THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FORCE CARLOTTA TO SLOW
 DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD. STEERING CURRENTS ARE THEN
 FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AS CARLOTTA BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
 CYCLONIC GYRE OVER MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY DAYS
 3-5. THE RESULT IS THAT CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER INLAND OVER
 SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND STEADILY WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48
 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK
 MODELS TVCN...TVCE...AND TVCC.
 
 ALTHOUGH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS MAY EXIST ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE THE 
 COAST OF MEXICO...STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND CARLOTTA SHOULD
 BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND A DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT DUE
 TO INTERACTION WITH THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH ONSHORE
 SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF CARLOTTA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
 GENERATE SQUALLS WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE
 PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
 MOUNTAINS...DUE TO THE FORECAST SLOW MOTION OF THE CYCLONE AND ITS
 REMNANTS. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS
 CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS A LARGE
 PORTION OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  16/0900Z 16.6N  98.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
  12H  16/1800Z 17.1N  99.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
  24H  17/0600Z 17.6N  99.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  36H  17/1800Z 17.8N 100.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  48H  18/0600Z 17.7N 100.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  19/0600Z 17.4N 100.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  20/0600Z 17.4N  99.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  21/0600Z 17.4N  99.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART