326 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 160240
 TCDEP3
  
 HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
 800 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012
  
 THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION OF CARLOTTA IS INTERACTING WITH
 THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
 BEGUN TO DETERIORATE. THE DISTINCT EYE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY HAS
 BECOME OBSCURE. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE...THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 80 KNOTS. ASSUMING THAT THE
 EYE OR THE CENTER MOVES COMPLETELY INLAND...WEAKENING IS
 FORECAST...AND THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TO OCCUR. CARLOTTA
 COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN TWO DAYS OR LESS.
 HOWEVER...ONE HAS TO BE CAUTIOUS...AND IF THE CENTER MOVES ALONG
 THE COAST INSTEAD...CARLOTTA WOULD NOT WEAKEN AS FAST AS INDICATED.
 GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS MAINTAINED
 WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO AT THIS TIME. 
 
 THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT
 9 KNOTS STEERED BY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
 GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STEERING
 CURRENTS WILL COLLAPSE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE WILL
 LIKELY MEANDER OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. IN FACT...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
 TURN CARLOTTA EASTWARD VERY SLOWLY IN THE LONG RANGE. 
  
 EVEN IF CARLOTTA BECOMES A WEAK SYSTEM...THE FORECAST SLOW MOTION
 COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
 SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
 FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  16/0300Z 15.9N  97.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  16/1200Z 16.5N  98.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
  24H  17/0000Z 17.0N  99.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
  36H  17/1200Z 17.5N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  48H  18/0000Z 17.5N 100.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  19/0000Z 17.0N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  20/0000Z 17.0N  99.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  21/0000Z 17.0N  99.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA